The New York Jets are still searching for their first win of the season, which they will hope to find in Indianapolis when they square up against the Colts. Indy is fresh off its first win of 2020 after taking down Kirk Cousins and the Vikings in Week 2. Now, they’ll try to go above .500 on the year and keep pace with the Tennessee Titans, who enter Week 3 in first place in the AFC South.
Both of these clubs have been bitten by the injury bug to begin the year. The Colts already had to place receiver Parris Campbell and running back Marlon Mack on IR, while Jets running back Le’Veon Bell has also found himself on injured reserve. Not only that, but New York will be without its two starting receivers in Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman, as they’ve already been ruled out for Sunday’s matchup.
In this space, we’re going to dive deep into all the betting angles to this matchup and offer up some of our best suggestions to keep you sharp prior to kickoff. All odds via William Hill Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Sept. 27 | Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Indiana)
TV: CBS | Stream: CBS All Access
Follow: CBS Sports App
Jets at Colts (-11.5)
The line opened up at Colts -9.5 and has only increased as the week rolled on. On Monday, the number jumped up a full point to Colts -10.5 and essentially stayed there through midweek before going on the move again. It bumped to Colts -11 on Wednesday evening and by Thursday afternoon it landing at the current line of Colts -11.5. Clearly, all the early action has been thrown Indianapolis’ way, which keeps that number climbing.
The pick: Colts -11.5. This is primed to be the largest spread of the season to this point. Ideally, you grabbed this at the start of the week when it was at Colts -9.5 or as it started to trend upwards. Still, it’s hard to imagine New York coming close to Indy’s point total on the road. Since 2018, the Jets have the worst ATS record in the NFL (12-21-1).
Over/Under 44 points
While the spread ballooned as the week progressed, the O/U line has pretty much stayed the course at 44. It did dip a half-point to 43.5 on Monday evening and stood until Tuesday afternoon before going back up to 44.
The pick: Under 44. Points are going to come at a premium here. Indy’s defense is stout and the Jets offense is going to be without Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman for the contest. The Colts will likely be just fine grinding out a win on the ground with rookie Jonathan Taylor.
First half: Colts -7, O/U 22.5
The pick: Colts -7. New York’s offense has looked lost under Adam Gase and without a number of key weapons at Sam Darnold’s disposal, it doesn’t seem likely they’ll be able to keep pace with the Colts offense. Indy should keep a sizable distance and head into the locker room with at least a touchdown lead.
Jonathan Taylor total rushing yards: Over 85.5 (-110). The Jets have allowed the ninth-most rushing yards in the NFL through the first two weeks of the season, giving them an average of 140 yards per game on the ground. That’s a tasty matchup for Taylor, who is fresh off a Week 2 performance where he carried the ball 26 times for 101 yards. (Ed. note: Pick was originally made at Over 77.5.)
Philip Rivers total interceptions: Over 0.5 (+120). The Jets secondary isn’t anything to write home about, but this speaks more to the veteran quarterback, who already has three interceptions on the year. He’s usually good for one poor decision and it’s up to New York’s defenders to take advantage.
Philip Rivers total passing attempts: Under 28.5 (-120). After dropping back 46 times in the opener, Rivers attempted 25 passes in Week 2 and that’s where I expect him to live this weekend as well. Indy shouldn’t have this game turn into a shootout and the offense should be able to lean on running back Jonathan Taylor to grind this game out on the ground.
Sam Darnold total passing yards: Under 202.5 (-110). Indy’s defense is pretty stout and should pressure Darnold through the afternoon. Not only will he likely be on the run, but when he does have a clean pocket, New York’s receiver unit is so banged up that he’ll be working with backups for most of the day.
T.Y. Hilton total receptions: Over 4.5 (-120). T.Y. Hilton’s slow start to 2020 isn’t due to a lack of looks from Rivers as he’s been targeted an average of seven times per game through the first two weeks. Assuming that continues, Hilton should find success against a Jets secondary that is allowing the seventh-most receptions in the league.